Year - Median Sale Price - % Change - Cumulative % Change
1999 ~ ~ $46,890
2000 ~ ~ $50,567 ~ ~ ~ +7.84% ~ ~ ~ + 7.84%
2001 ~ ~ $37,000 ~ ~ ~ -26.83% ~ ~ - 21.09%
2002 ~ ~ $48,250 ~ ~ ~ +30.41% ~ ~ + 2.90%
2003 ~ ~ $62,000 ~ ~ ~ +28.50% ~ ~ + 32.22%
2004 ~ ~ $92,750 ~ ~ ~ +49.60% ~ ~ + 97.80%
2005 ~ ~ $109,500 ~ ~ +18.06% ~ ~ + 133.53%
2006 ~ ~ $90,000 ~ ~ ~ -17.81% ~ ~ + 91.94%
2007 ~ ~ $125,000 ~ ~ +38.89% ~ ~ + 166.58%
Year - Number Sold - % Change - Avg. DOM - Sale Price % List Price
1999 ~ ~ ~ 98 ~ ~ ~ ~ ------------ ~ ~ ~ 469 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 89.48%
2000 ~ ~ ~ 125 ~ ~ ~ + 27.55% ~ ~ ~ 470 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 89.93%
2001 ~ ~ ~ 104 ~ ~ ~ - 16.80% ~~~ ~ 351 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 90.80%
2002 ~ ~ ~ 176 ~ ~ ~ + 69.23% ~ ~ ~ 297 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 92.67%
2003 ~ ~ ~ 137 ~ ~ ~ - 22.16% ~~~ ~ 381 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 89.48%
2004 ~ ~ ~ 156 ~ ~ ~ + 13.87% ~ ~ ~ 302 ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ 90.22%
2005 ~ ~ ~ 144 ~ ~ ~ - 7.69% ~~ ~ ~ 300 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 94.68%
2006 ~ ~ ~ 108 ~ ~ ~ - 25.00% ~ ~ ~ 221 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 88.25%
2007 ~ ~ ~ 85 ~~ ~ ~ - 21.30% ~ ~ ~ 287 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 87.83%
Columbia County New York experienced a significant increase in land values over the last five years and impressive 166% increase since 1999. I offer several explanations for the increasing trend in values, but the old adage "There not making any more of it" probably says its best.
- The costs to develop land have gone up significantly.
- The majority of second home owners prefer privacy and seclusion for their country home. This preference eliminates many existing homes because they don't offer privacy. These buyers often choose building as the best option to achieve their goals.
- Many high-end buyers can't find a property up to their standards and decide building is their best option.
- A number of building lots have been purchased by developer/builders who built homes on spec and sold them.
- Columbia County real estate has provided an excellent investment return.
- Land Conservancy efforts are taking large parcels out of inventory for development.
- Zoning requirements are getting tougher throughout the county. For example, Ancram, Copake and Hillsdale now have a scenic overlay district surrounding the Route 22 corridor.
- Some towns in Columbia County have enacted moratoriums on major developments.
The point is, the intrinsic and investment value of land in Columbia County was discovered after the 9/11/01 tragedy and its been a "seller's market" since. However, examining the number of sold properties each year offers evidence that this "seller's market" is coming to an end. Since 2004 the number of sold land parcels has decreased every year and in 2007 a total of 85 was the fewest for any year in the study. If this trend continues prices will level off and may start to give back some of their gains achieved in recent years.
In 1999 and 2000 the average number of days on the market before a land parcel sold was an astounding 470 days. That period was reduced by over five months during the "seller's market" of 2002 - 2007.
As with residential properties, the statistic Sale Price as a Percent of List Price remained relatively constant over the nine year period. I believe this demonstrates an important point about selling real estate in any type of market. That point is: the average parcel of land will sell when it's asking price is listed within ten percent of the eventual sale price, almost without regard for changing market conditions.
My prediction for 2008 is that seller's won't want to reduce their asking prices and many land parcels will go unsold. The total number of sold parcels will remain around 85 and the average days on market statistic will increase dramatically. Stay tuned for updates.
John A. Avenia, Associate Broker, ABRBeach & Bartolo, Realtors, Inc.
john@columbiacountyrealestate.org
(800) 290-4235
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