By Shelly Banjo
From The Wall Street Journal Online
Finally, it's a buyer's market out there.
For years rapidly rising prices kept many first-time home buyers out of the housing market. But as home values slide further downward and interest rates hover at relatively low levels, it may be time to start looking to buy that first house.
To read the entire article: http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/tactics/20080311-banjo.html?refresh=on
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Monday, March 10, 2008
2007 Columbia County Real Estate Market Recap - Land
Columbia County NY land values outperformed residential values for the period 1999 - 2007 with median sale prices continuing their rise through 2006 and 2007.
Year - Median Sale Price - % Change - Cumulative % Change
1999 ~ ~ $46,890
2000 ~ ~ $50,567 ~ ~ ~ +7.84% ~ ~ ~ + 7.84%
2001 ~ ~ $37,000 ~ ~ ~ -26.83% ~ ~ - 21.09%
2002 ~ ~ $48,250 ~ ~ ~ +30.41% ~ ~ + 2.90%
2003 ~ ~ $62,000 ~ ~ ~ +28.50% ~ ~ + 32.22%
2004 ~ ~ $92,750 ~ ~ ~ +49.60% ~ ~ + 97.80%
2005 ~ ~ $109,500 ~ ~ +18.06% ~ ~ + 133.53%
2006 ~ ~ $90,000 ~ ~ ~ -17.81% ~ ~ + 91.94%
2007 ~ ~ $125,000 ~ ~ +38.89% ~ ~ + 166.58%
Year - Number Sold - % Change - Avg. DOM - Sale Price % List Price
1999 ~ ~ ~ 98 ~ ~ ~ ~ ------------ ~ ~ ~ 469 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 89.48%
2000 ~ ~ ~ 125 ~ ~ ~ + 27.55% ~ ~ ~ 470 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 89.93%
2001 ~ ~ ~ 104 ~ ~ ~ - 16.80% ~~~ ~ 351 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 90.80%
2002 ~ ~ ~ 176 ~ ~ ~ + 69.23% ~ ~ ~ 297 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 92.67%
2003 ~ ~ ~ 137 ~ ~ ~ - 22.16% ~~~ ~ 381 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 89.48%
2004 ~ ~ ~ 156 ~ ~ ~ + 13.87% ~ ~ ~ 302 ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ 90.22%
2005 ~ ~ ~ 144 ~ ~ ~ - 7.69% ~~ ~ ~ 300 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 94.68%
2006 ~ ~ ~ 108 ~ ~ ~ - 25.00% ~ ~ ~ 221 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 88.25%
2007 ~ ~ ~ 85 ~~ ~ ~ - 21.30% ~ ~ ~ 287 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 87.83%
Columbia County New York experienced a significant increase in land values over the last five years and impressive 166% increase since 1999. I offer several explanations for the increasing trend in values, but the old adage "There not making any more of it" probably says its best.
Beach & Bartolo, Realtors, Inc.
john@columbiacountyrealestate.org
(800) 290-4235
Year - Median Sale Price - % Change - Cumulative % Change
1999 ~ ~ $46,890
2000 ~ ~ $50,567 ~ ~ ~ +7.84% ~ ~ ~ + 7.84%
2001 ~ ~ $37,000 ~ ~ ~ -26.83% ~ ~ - 21.09%
2002 ~ ~ $48,250 ~ ~ ~ +30.41% ~ ~ + 2.90%
2003 ~ ~ $62,000 ~ ~ ~ +28.50% ~ ~ + 32.22%
2004 ~ ~ $92,750 ~ ~ ~ +49.60% ~ ~ + 97.80%
2005 ~ ~ $109,500 ~ ~ +18.06% ~ ~ + 133.53%
2006 ~ ~ $90,000 ~ ~ ~ -17.81% ~ ~ + 91.94%
2007 ~ ~ $125,000 ~ ~ +38.89% ~ ~ + 166.58%
Year - Number Sold - % Change - Avg. DOM - Sale Price % List Price
1999 ~ ~ ~ 98 ~ ~ ~ ~ ------------ ~ ~ ~ 469 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 89.48%
2000 ~ ~ ~ 125 ~ ~ ~ + 27.55% ~ ~ ~ 470 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 89.93%
2001 ~ ~ ~ 104 ~ ~ ~ - 16.80% ~~~ ~ 351 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 90.80%
2002 ~ ~ ~ 176 ~ ~ ~ + 69.23% ~ ~ ~ 297 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 92.67%
2003 ~ ~ ~ 137 ~ ~ ~ - 22.16% ~~~ ~ 381 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 89.48%
2004 ~ ~ ~ 156 ~ ~ ~ + 13.87% ~ ~ ~ 302 ~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ 90.22%
2005 ~ ~ ~ 144 ~ ~ ~ - 7.69% ~~ ~ ~ 300 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 94.68%
2006 ~ ~ ~ 108 ~ ~ ~ - 25.00% ~ ~ ~ 221 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 88.25%
2007 ~ ~ ~ 85 ~~ ~ ~ - 21.30% ~ ~ ~ 287 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 87.83%
Columbia County New York experienced a significant increase in land values over the last five years and impressive 166% increase since 1999. I offer several explanations for the increasing trend in values, but the old adage "There not making any more of it" probably says its best.
- The costs to develop land have gone up significantly.
- The majority of second home owners prefer privacy and seclusion for their country home. This preference eliminates many existing homes because they don't offer privacy. These buyers often choose building as the best option to achieve their goals.
- Many high-end buyers can't find a property up to their standards and decide building is their best option.
- A number of building lots have been purchased by developer/builders who built homes on spec and sold them.
- Columbia County real estate has provided an excellent investment return.
- Land Conservancy efforts are taking large parcels out of inventory for development.
- Zoning requirements are getting tougher throughout the county. For example, Ancram, Copake and Hillsdale now have a scenic overlay district surrounding the Route 22 corridor.
- Some towns in Columbia County have enacted moratoriums on major developments.
The point is, the intrinsic and investment value of land in Columbia County was discovered after the 9/11/01 tragedy and its been a "seller's market" since. However, examining the number of sold properties each year offers evidence that this "seller's market" is coming to an end. Since 2004 the number of sold land parcels has decreased every year and in 2007 a total of 85 was the fewest for any year in the study. If this trend continues prices will level off and may start to give back some of their gains achieved in recent years.
In 1999 and 2000 the average number of days on the market before a land parcel sold was an astounding 470 days. That period was reduced by over five months during the "seller's market" of 2002 - 2007.
As with residential properties, the statistic Sale Price as a Percent of List Price remained relatively constant over the nine year period. I believe this demonstrates an important point about selling real estate in any type of market. That point is: the average parcel of land will sell when it's asking price is listed within ten percent of the eventual sale price, almost without regard for changing market conditions.
My prediction for 2008 is that seller's won't want to reduce their asking prices and many land parcels will go unsold. The total number of sold parcels will remain around 85 and the average days on market statistic will increase dramatically. Stay tuned for updates.
John A. Avenia, Associate Broker, ABRBeach & Bartolo, Realtors, Inc.
john@columbiacountyrealestate.org
(800) 290-4235
Saturday, March 8, 2008
2007 Columbia County Real Estate Market Recap - Residential - Part 3
One of the best and most reliable indicators or real estate market activity is the annual number of properties sold. Over the last ten years the Columbia County real estate market completed a classic "seller's market" cycle. The cycle began with an average of 565 homes being sold from 1999 - 2001. During next four years (2002 - 2005) the average increased over 20% to 683 home sales county wide. Over the last two years (2006 - 2007) the number of homes sold in the county fell significantly to an average of 579 sold homes.
Year - Number of Sold Homes - Percentage Change
1999 ~ 532
2000 ~ 586 ~ +10.15%
2001 ~ 577 ~ -1.54%
2002 ~ 640 ~ +10.92%
2003 ~ 647 ~ +1.09%
2004 ~ 751 ~ +16.07%
2005 ~ 693 ~ -7.72%
2006 ~ 607 ~ -12.41%
2007 ~ 550 ~ -9.39%
If you own property now, or are considering purchasing property in Columbia County New York an important questions to consider is: how many residential properties will be sold in 2008?
The market could continue its three-year pattern of approximately 10% fewer homes sold each year. This would reduce the total number of homes sold in the county in 2008 to under 500, which could have a substantial negative impact on home prices. I believe, however, that homes sales will flatten out at somewhere around 550 again this year. This number of home sales would keep our market healthy and should result in the median sale price for homes sold in the county during 2008 to remain level at around $235,000.
What 2008 will hold is anyone's guess. Check back with The Columbia County NY Real Estate Blog for important market updates. You can also contact John to discuss this topic in more depth.
Check back in with us again soon for a market recap on Columbia County land sales.
John A. Avenia, Associate Broker
Beach & Bartolo, Realtors, Inc.
http://www.columbiacountyrealestate.org/
(800) 290-4235
Year - Number of Sold Homes - Percentage Change
1999 ~ 532
2000 ~ 586 ~ +10.15%
2001 ~ 577 ~ -1.54%
2002 ~ 640 ~ +10.92%
2003 ~ 647 ~ +1.09%
2004 ~ 751 ~ +16.07%
2005 ~ 693 ~ -7.72%
2006 ~ 607 ~ -12.41%
2007 ~ 550 ~ -9.39%
If you own property now, or are considering purchasing property in Columbia County New York an important questions to consider is: how many residential properties will be sold in 2008?
The market could continue its three-year pattern of approximately 10% fewer homes sold each year. This would reduce the total number of homes sold in the county in 2008 to under 500, which could have a substantial negative impact on home prices. I believe, however, that homes sales will flatten out at somewhere around 550 again this year. This number of home sales would keep our market healthy and should result in the median sale price for homes sold in the county during 2008 to remain level at around $235,000.
What 2008 will hold is anyone's guess. Check back with The Columbia County NY Real Estate Blog for important market updates. You can also contact John to discuss this topic in more depth.
Check back in with us again soon for a market recap on Columbia County land sales.
John A. Avenia, Associate Broker
Beach & Bartolo, Realtors, Inc.
http://www.columbiacountyrealestate.org/
(800) 290-4235
Friday, March 7, 2008
2007 Columbia County Real Estate Market Recap - Residential - Part 2
Another important statistic that reflects the strength of a real estate market and can tell a lot about its future direction is "Average Days On Market". The average days on market statistic represents the average number of days a property is listed before receiving an acceptable offer to purchase it.
Year - Average Days on Market - Sale Price as a Percent of Listing Price
1999 ~ 327 ~ 103.90%
2000 ~ 276 ~ 104.89%
2001 ~ 172 ~ 97.40%
2002 ~ 130 ~ 94.91%
2003 ~ 159 ~ 94.76%
2004 ~ 149 ~ 94.84%
2005 ~ 157 ~ 95.28%
2006 ~ 158 ~ 93.66%
2007 ~ 186 ~ 93.61%
The average days on market statistic very accurately tracked the changes in our Columbia County real estate market. In 1999 and 2000 it took approximately 10 months to sell a residential property. In 2001 as demand strengthened properties began to sell much more quickly. During the peak of the "seller's market" in 2002-2005 this statistic fell to just over 5 months on the market. In 2006 this statistic levelled on and began moving upward in 2007.
It is intuitively easy to see that properties sell more quickly in a "seller's" market and more slowly in a "buyer's market". The Columbia County real estate market is certainly not a "buyer's" market yet. In fact, I would say we have reverted back to the "neutral market" conditions that existed in 1999 and 2000.
Another interesting statistic is Sale Price as a Percent of List Price. This stat is included in the third column above. I find it interesting and telling that from 2001 through 2007 this statistic remained relatively unchanged, even as we went from a "neutral market" to a "seller's market" and back to a "neutral market". I believe this demonstrates an important point about selling real estate in any type of market. That point is: the average house will sell when it's asking price is listed within ten percent of the eventual sale price, almost without regard for changing market conditions.
John A. Avenia, Associate Broker
Beach & Bartolo, Realtors, Inc.
www.columbiacountyrealestate.org
john@columbiacountyrealestate.org
(800) 290-4235
Year - Average Days on Market - Sale Price as a Percent of Listing Price
1999 ~ 327 ~ 103.90%
2000 ~ 276 ~ 104.89%
2001 ~ 172 ~ 97.40%
2002 ~ 130 ~ 94.91%
2003 ~ 159 ~ 94.76%
2004 ~ 149 ~ 94.84%
2005 ~ 157 ~ 95.28%
2006 ~ 158 ~ 93.66%
2007 ~ 186 ~ 93.61%
The average days on market statistic very accurately tracked the changes in our Columbia County real estate market. In 1999 and 2000 it took approximately 10 months to sell a residential property. In 2001 as demand strengthened properties began to sell much more quickly. During the peak of the "seller's market" in 2002-2005 this statistic fell to just over 5 months on the market. In 2006 this statistic levelled on and began moving upward in 2007.
It is intuitively easy to see that properties sell more quickly in a "seller's" market and more slowly in a "buyer's market". The Columbia County real estate market is certainly not a "buyer's" market yet. In fact, I would say we have reverted back to the "neutral market" conditions that existed in 1999 and 2000.
Another interesting statistic is Sale Price as a Percent of List Price. This stat is included in the third column above. I find it interesting and telling that from 2001 through 2007 this statistic remained relatively unchanged, even as we went from a "neutral market" to a "seller's market" and back to a "neutral market". I believe this demonstrates an important point about selling real estate in any type of market. That point is: the average house will sell when it's asking price is listed within ten percent of the eventual sale price, almost without regard for changing market conditions.
John A. Avenia, Associate Broker
Beach & Bartolo, Realtors, Inc.
www.columbiacountyrealestate.org
john@columbiacountyrealestate.org
(800) 290-4235
Bernanke Signals Rate Cuts On Concern About Economy
By Neil IrwinWashington Post Staff Writer Thursday, February 28, 2008; Page D01
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke came to Capitol Hill yesterday during a swirl of new evidence that the economy is getting weaker and inflation is on the rise. But his message was the same as it has been since the beginning of the year: His foremost concern is the slumping economy, and more interest rate cuts could well be on the way.
To read the entire article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/27/AR2008022700967.html
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke came to Capitol Hill yesterday during a swirl of new evidence that the economy is getting weaker and inflation is on the rise. But his message was the same as it has been since the beginning of the year: His foremost concern is the slumping economy, and more interest rate cuts could well be on the way.
To read the entire article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/27/AR2008022700967.html
2007 Columbia County Real Estate Market Recap - Residential - Part 1
Columbia County NY real estate values held up very well in 2007, especially compared to other sections of the country.
Year - Median Sale Price - % Change - Cummulative % Change
1999 - $128,280
2000 - $132,533 ~ +3.32% ~ 3.32%
2001 - $136,550 ~ +3.03% ~ 6.45%
2002 - $149,733 ~ +9.65% ~ 16.72%
2003 - $160,708 ~ +7.33% ~ 25.28%
2004 - $206,562 ~ +28.53% ~ 61.02%
2005 - $235,083 ~ +13.81% ~ 83.26%
2006 - $230,000 ~ -2.16% ~ 79.30%
2007 - $237,500 ~ 3.26% ~ 85.14%
In the years 1999 through 2001 Columbia County NY real estate values appreciated at about 3% per year. After the 9/11/2001 tragedy the real estate market here took off. People who had been on the fence about purchasing a country home immediately decided to do so. Overnight this overwhelming demand created a heated "seller's" market.
Over the next three years real estate value in Columbia County soared to new all-time highs. In 2006 interest rates began to climb and the "seller's" market ended. Because of lower demand for property median sale prices stopped increasing, but held their ground nicely. From 2005 - 2007 median sale prices remained flat, holding most if not all of their gains achieved in previous years. This is a very encouraging, especially considering what has happened to other real estate market all across the county.
John A. Avenia, Associate Broker
Beach & Bartolo, Realtors, Inc.
http://www.columbiacountyrealestate.org/
john@columbiacountyrealestate.org
(800) 290-4235
Year - Median Sale Price - % Change - Cummulative % Change
1999 - $128,280
2000 - $132,533 ~ +3.32% ~ 3.32%
2001 - $136,550 ~ +3.03% ~ 6.45%
2002 - $149,733 ~ +9.65% ~ 16.72%
2003 - $160,708 ~ +7.33% ~ 25.28%
2004 - $206,562 ~ +28.53% ~ 61.02%
2005 - $235,083 ~ +13.81% ~ 83.26%
2006 - $230,000 ~ -2.16% ~ 79.30%
2007 - $237,500 ~ 3.26% ~ 85.14%
In the years 1999 through 2001 Columbia County NY real estate values appreciated at about 3% per year. After the 9/11/2001 tragedy the real estate market here took off. People who had been on the fence about purchasing a country home immediately decided to do so. Overnight this overwhelming demand created a heated "seller's" market.
Over the next three years real estate value in Columbia County soared to new all-time highs. In 2006 interest rates began to climb and the "seller's" market ended. Because of lower demand for property median sale prices stopped increasing, but held their ground nicely. From 2005 - 2007 median sale prices remained flat, holding most if not all of their gains achieved in previous years. This is a very encouraging, especially considering what has happened to other real estate market all across the county.
John A. Avenia, Associate Broker
Beach & Bartolo, Realtors, Inc.
http://www.columbiacountyrealestate.org/
john@columbiacountyrealestate.org
(800) 290-4235
Thursday, March 6, 2008
NAR President announces new FHA and Fannie Mae - Freddie Mac conforming loan limits
Dick Gaylord, President of the National Association of Realtors, made the following important announcement to its membership today:
My fellow REALTORS®: I know you've all been waiting for some relief to our current market conditions, and it arrived today: the new FHA and Fannie Mae- Freddie Mac conforming loan limits have been released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
To find out the new limits in your area, simply click on this link: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/hicostlook.cfm, which will take you to the "mortgage limits" page at the HUD web site. On that page, enter your state and county information, chose the type of loan from the "Limit Type" drop-down box (FHA Forward, Fannie/Freddie or HECM). [Note: FHA Forward is what HUD is calling the temporary FHA loan limit.] Then click the "send" button at the bottom of the page. On the results page, you'll see the new loan limit for the type of loan you selected for your area. You can also find a county-by-county listing of the new FHA and Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac loan limits at REALTOR.org by following this link: http://www.realtor.org/GAPublic.nsf/files/chart_hud_loan_limits_08.pdf/$FILE/chart_hud_loan_limits_08.pdf
The new loan limits for FHA and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now calculated at 125 percent of the HUD published median prices, with a floor of $271,050 and $417,000, respectively, not to exceed $729,750.
We expect the impact of these loan limit increases on the housing market to be significant because of the infusion of capital into the mortgage market, which should result in lower interest rates across the board. In addition, there will be a direct impact on high-cost areas that previously required borrowers to take out costlier jumbo mortgages.
As NAR research points out, increasing FHA loan limits will help an additional 138,000 Americans achieve the dream of home ownership and will allow nearly 200,000 homeowners to refinance and potentially keep their home. In addition, NAR believes that increasing the loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will bolster the housing finance market, which continues to be severely stressed, by providing an immediate infusion of much needed liquidity to the nation’s mortgage market.
An economic impact study conducted by NAR in January 2008 estimated that increasing the GSEs’ conforming loan limits would result in as many as 500,000 refinanced loans and could help reduce foreclosures by as much as 210,000. In addition, over 300,000 additional home sales could be generated, housing inventory would be reduced and home prices would be strengthened by two to three percentage points.
HUD was mandated in the Economic Stimulus Act to publish new loan limits within 30 days of the bill's signing by President Bush on February 13. NAR strongly supported this economic stimulus package because of the relief we felt it would bring our members.
My fellow REALTORS®: I know you've all been waiting for some relief to our current market conditions, and it arrived today: the new FHA and Fannie Mae- Freddie Mac conforming loan limits have been released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
To find out the new limits in your area, simply click on this link: https://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/hicostlook.cfm, which will take you to the "mortgage limits" page at the HUD web site. On that page, enter your state and county information, chose the type of loan from the "Limit Type" drop-down box (FHA Forward, Fannie/Freddie or HECM). [Note: FHA Forward is what HUD is calling the temporary FHA loan limit.] Then click the "send" button at the bottom of the page. On the results page, you'll see the new loan limit for the type of loan you selected for your area. You can also find a county-by-county listing of the new FHA and Fannie Mae-Freddie Mac loan limits at REALTOR.org by following this link: http://www.realtor.org/GAPublic.nsf/files/chart_hud_loan_limits_08.pdf/$FILE/chart_hud_loan_limits_08.pdf
The new loan limits for FHA and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now calculated at 125 percent of the HUD published median prices, with a floor of $271,050 and $417,000, respectively, not to exceed $729,750.
We expect the impact of these loan limit increases on the housing market to be significant because of the infusion of capital into the mortgage market, which should result in lower interest rates across the board. In addition, there will be a direct impact on high-cost areas that previously required borrowers to take out costlier jumbo mortgages.
As NAR research points out, increasing FHA loan limits will help an additional 138,000 Americans achieve the dream of home ownership and will allow nearly 200,000 homeowners to refinance and potentially keep their home. In addition, NAR believes that increasing the loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will bolster the housing finance market, which continues to be severely stressed, by providing an immediate infusion of much needed liquidity to the nation’s mortgage market.
An economic impact study conducted by NAR in January 2008 estimated that increasing the GSEs’ conforming loan limits would result in as many as 500,000 refinanced loans and could help reduce foreclosures by as much as 210,000. In addition, over 300,000 additional home sales could be generated, housing inventory would be reduced and home prices would be strengthened by two to three percentage points.
HUD was mandated in the Economic Stimulus Act to publish new loan limits within 30 days of the bill's signing by President Bush on February 13. NAR strongly supported this economic stimulus package because of the relief we felt it would bring our members.
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